Reflation / Sentiment framework — live edition

Macro Console Live

FRAMEWORK + REAL-TIME READ
PRICES DELAYED / APPROXIMATE
EDUCATIONAL — NOT ADVICE

Live data is fetched on demand from public market feeds and may be delayed, approximate, or incomplete; treat every number as indicative, not authoritative. Regime classification is a heuristic reading of the framework, not a forecast. Nothing here is financial advice — it is an educational lens for organizing what the market is doing. Verify all figures against your own data before acting.

Every asset price moves on two things

Growth expectations × inflation expectations. The whole macro lens. The live read above plots today onto exactly this 2×2. Click any quadrant.

Growth ↑ Growth ↓ ← Inflation ↓ Inflation ↑ → Goldilocks Stocks ↑ Bonds ↑ Reflation Stocks ↑ Commod ↑ Deflation Bonds ↑ USD ↑ Stagflation Gold ↑ Commod ↑
Tip: the four cells differ in what wins. Click each to see the playbook. The live tab tells you which one we're in right now.

The yield curve is the market's growth + inflation forecast

Each point = what investors demand to lend the US government for that duration. The shape matters more than the levels.

Normal upward slope

Longer = more risk = higher yield. Market expects positive growth, persistent inflation, heavy Treasury issuance.

Inverted (2Y > 10Y)

Classic recession signal — market expects the Fed to cut sharply because growth is failing.

Bear-steepening

Long end rising fastest. Punishes long-duration assets: TLT, growth-stock DCFs, levered real estate.

Bull-steepening

Short end falling fastest = Fed cuts being priced in. Often precedes a growth recovery — or confirms a scare.

Why the long end matters most

The 30Y is the discount rate the whole world uses for long-duration valuation. Every growth-stock model and every infrastructure project competes with it. Watch TLT in the live tab as your proxy: TLT weak = long yields rising = duration pain.

Three numbers, the whole picture

For every asset the dashboard answers three questions. Internalize them and you read 50 rows in 30 seconds.

vs 50-day MA

Intermediate momentum. Are funds buying or selling over weeks-to-months? Big positive = aggressive inflow.

vs 200-day MA

Regime filter. The single most important line in technical analysis. Above = bull, below = bear. Don't fight it.

52-week range position

0% = yearly low, 100% = yearly high. Tells you whether momentum is fresh or stale.

The 2×2 shortcut

↗ Above 200d + high in range → trending leader buy strength

↘ Above 200d + low in range → pullback in uptrend accumulate

↗ Below 200d + high in range → bear-market rally fade

↘ Below 200d + low in range → broken avoid

Markets talk to each other

No asset moves alone. The relationships carry more information than any single price.

Four canonical readings

Stocks ↑ + Bonds ↑ → Goldilocks. Rare. Fed cutting into healthy growth.

Stocks ↑ + Bonds ↓ → Reflation. Growth shrugging off rates.

Stocks ↓ + Bonds ↑ → Recession trade. Flight to safety.

Stocks ↓ + Bonds ↓ → Stagflation panic. Nowhere to hide.

The pairs to watch in the live tab

QQQ vs IWM — breadth. IWM leading = participation widening.

TLT vs HYG — duration vs credit. They usually move together; divergence is a signal.

USO vs DXY — inflation vs dollar. Strong oil + weak USD = inflation building.

EWT/KOSPI — the AI-semi cycle expressed as country bets.

Sentiment is the second axis

Macro asks what money is doing; sentiment asks how investors feel. The composite hides divergences — and the divergences are the signal.

The 7 sub-signals

VIX volatility · Momentum trend · Price Strength highs vs lows · Breadth participation · Put/Call speculation · Junk demand credit appetite · Safe-haven hedging.

The divergence rules that matter

Momentum HIGH + Breadth LOW → narrow leadership ⚠️

Composite GREED + Safe-haven HIGH → hedged bull, not real greed ⚠️

Junk demand LOW + equities at highs → credit not confirming ⚠️

Backward vs forward signals

Breadth is backward-looking (it tells you what already happened to participation). Junk-bond demand and safe-haven flows are forward-looking (what allocators are doing with money now). When they disagree, the forward signals are usually the smarter read.